Friday, July 01, 2005

Rough Beast Slouching

Shattering the illusion of security is the purpose of terrorism. The continuing suicide bombings and other acts of the insurgents in Iraq are the current main event in world terrorism.

Sooner or later our turn will come around again. The relative peace on our soil since 9/11/01 is an illusion. The attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon accomplished so much for the cause of terrorism that no further action here has been needed-so far. What did the attacks in New York and D.C. accomplish?

The initial outpouring of sympathy for us evaporated as the administration pursued a go-it-alone course in Iraq. The qualified support for going after the Taliban and al Queda in Afghanistan did not extend to an invasion of Iraq based on skewed intel. Support from Great Britain and a motley collection of smaller powers does not compare to former alliances in 1990 and in Afghanistan.

Removing Saddam and wrecking the infrastructure in Iraq set in motion forces unforseen (why?) by the Bush administration. An Iraq without Saddam was certainly an agreeable prospect. The means of accomplishing Saddam's ouster, however, became a part of the larger problem of Iraq's fragmented society. Nothing happens on this sort of scale without unintended consequences.

Two years into the Iraq incursion, our actions have made fact what in the justification for action was not true in 2003. Iraq is now a bastion of terrorism, with a deputy of Osama's making the country al Queda's main theater of operations.

Sunnis, initially deprived of their minority control of the government, have undermined the effort to bring democracy to Iraq, partly by largely boycotting the election, and by at least passively supporting some of the insurgency. I don't believe Sunnis understand the probable outcome of their failure to unite against the foreign terrorists. Destabilization of the government, with an eye to establishing a regime friendly to terror and Islamic fascism, are the goals of the al Queda forces. Sunnis ought to consider what deadly bedfellows they are enabling.

I don't believe the Bush administration gave any deep thought to the consequences of unilaterally invading Iraq. A country bound together by force, formed of three unharmonious groups, is not likely to remain united in any cause, including democracy, following a massively destructive foreign invasion.

I do not know what we can now do to remediate our past miscalculations. Having kicked over the ant hill, we now express horror and confusion over the swarming ants that sting us.

Sooner or later, we will feel that stinging much closer to home. For the time being, the terrorists are enjoying the opportunities we helped create for them in Iraq. It remains to be seen what comes next on their agenda.